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Hurricane Surf Forecasting
It’s the summer of 1995—one of the greatest East Coast surf seasons in history! You’re a surf forecaster tracking hurricanes as they spin up off the coast of Africa. Your job: predict which storms will create the best surf, estimate wave size, and choose the perfect spot to score epic barrels.
Use real hurricane data (swell height, period, direction, wind) to make your predictions. Get it right, and you’ll be paddling out to perfect overhead waves. Get it wrong, and you’ll be stuck on the beach!
Swell Height
What it is: The height of waves in deepAway from the surface of the body. waterThe universal solvent essential for life. (measured by buoys)
How it changes: When swells hit shallow water near shore, they grow! A 6 ft deep-water swell can become 8-10 ft surf.
Sweet spot: 4-8 ft = good surf, 10+ ft = expert only
Swell Period
What it is: Time (in seconds) between wave crests
The magic: Longer period = more powerful, organized waves
Categories:
• Windswell: 1-11 sec (choppy, weak)
• Groundswell: 12-16 sec (good surf!)
• Epic groundswell: 16+ sec (powerful barrels)
Experiment with the Wave Simulator Below to see how the Axes of the Graph Change in Response
- Choppy windswell: Height = 2m, Period = 6 sec, Wind = 25 knots
- Epic groundswell: Height = 3m, Period = 18 sec, Wind = 5 knots
- Hurricane swell: Height = 8m, Period = 20 sec, Wind = 10 knots
1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Epic 1995 Season: One of the most legendary years for East Coast surfing! This season produced 11 hurricanes (5 major), with Felix, Luis, and Marilyn creating some of the best surf in history.
Hurricane Humberto
August 22 – September 1, 1995
Category: Cat 2
Swell Height: 1.3 meters
Swell Period: 12 sec
Swell Direction: SE (135°)
Wind Direction: E (Onshore)
Wind Speed: 20–25 knots
Hurricane Luis
August 27 – September 12, 1995
Category: Cat 4
Swell Height: 3.3 meters
Swell Period: 20 sec
Swell Direction: E (90°)
Wind Direction: NW (Offshore)
Wind Speed: 8–12 knots
Hurricane Felix
August 31 – September 7, 2007
Category: Cat 4
Swell Height: 6.6 meters
Swell Period: 18 sec
Swell Direction: ENE (70°)
Wind Direction: W (Offshore)
Wind Speed: 10–15 knots
Hurricane Marilyn
September 12 – September 30, 1995
Category: Cat 2
Swell Height: 3.6 meters
Swell Period: 14 sec
Swell Direction: ESE (112°)
Wind Direction: SW (Light offshore)
Wind Speed: 5–10 knots
Tropical Storm Iris
October 4 – October 9, 2001
Category: Tropical Storm
Swell Height: 1 meter
Swell Period: 9 sec
Swell Direction: NE (45°)
Wind Direction: NE (Strong onshore)
Wind Speed: 25–30 knots
List of terms
- deep
- water